If you've read the news lately, you'd think the entire liquor industry is about to join Blockbuster in the graveyard of American commerce.
Spirits sales fell 2.2% in 2025, totaling $36.4 billion. Only 54% of Americans say they drink — the lowest in over two decades. Gen Z is leading a "sober curious" movement. Molson Coors expects earnings to drop up to 15%. Jim Beam halted production at a flagship distillery.
So, is the liquor industry in trouble?
We analyzed data from 1,478 liquor stores across 26+ states to find out what's actually happening at the register. The picture is more nuanced than the headlines suggest — and there's more you can do about it than you might think.
In our Q4 2025 analysis across 1,478 stores — averaging $103,000+ in monthly revenue — the numbers aren't catastrophic. But they're not comfortable either.
Total gross payment volume: -3.3% ($180.0M → $173.9M)
Transactions: -1.2% (7.05M → 6.96M)
Average basket size: -2.2% ($25.54 → $24.99)
Total gross payment volume: -0.7% ($210.6M → $209.2M)
Transactions: +0.5% (7.45M → 7.49M)
Average basket size: -1.2% ($28.27 → $27.94)
What stands out isn’t exciting: Transactions are nearly flat. In December, they were actually up. People still want to shop at liquor stores, they’re just spending less.
So, rather than being in crisis, the real story is that average basket size is shrinking, and when basket size drops, gross profit follows. You still run the same store, pay the same rent, and staff the same hours — but each transaction is worth a little less than it was in 2024.
However! There is good news among the doom and gloom. Of the 201 liquor store owners we surveyed:
Liquor retail isn’t collapsing, but you might need to tighten things up. If you don’t adapt, you’ll feel it. At Bottle POS, we want our customers to succeed — so here’s what you can do to buck the trend.
You can’t just stock more products and hope something sticks. When basket size shrinks, that’s the wrong move.
Instead, go deeper into what’s already working. The 80/20 rule applies here: Toughly 20% of your products generate 80% of your profit. Your job is to figure out which bottles are in that 20% — and to make sure they never run out of stock.
This is already happening. In our survey, 79% of stores that cited rising costs as their top concern are expanding into whiskey — a category with strong margins (45–55% on premium bottles) despite a 0.9% dip in revenue last year.
If you’re under pressure, gravitating toward higher-margin categories is the right call.
Your first step is to audit your product categories. Here’s how:
Pull the reports and take action. Bottle POS includes all the reports you need. Our auto ranking feature shows what's selling and what's collecting dust.
Related Read: From Gut Feel to Data-Driven: How AI Will Predict Your Next Bestselling Bottle
We found a disconnect in our report: 81% of liquor stores already carry nonalcoholic (NA) products. But only 41% plan to expand their NA selection.
Meanwhile, demand is higher than ever. 49% of Americans plan to drink less. 65% of Gen Z — the largest generation in history — plan to cut back, and 35.8% identify as teetotalers. NA beer volume is up 30% year over year. NA spirits grew 32%. The nonalcoholic category as a whole crossed $1 billion in 2025 for the first time.
Most stores focus on nonalcoholic beer (100% of carriers stock it). But there are real opportunities in the categories with less shelf competition:
There’s no need for a full aisle. You can start with a curated endcap. Experiment with a few NA spirit brands, some functional botanicals, and, where your state allows it, a THC/CBD selection. Track what sells and build from there.
People want to feel confident in what they buy — especially younger customers and budget-conscious shoppers. But don’t think that means they want cheaper brands. They want guidance.
Say someone walks into your store looking to spend $30 on a bottle of whiskey. They don't want 47 options and zero context. They want your recommendation. They want to know what's worth the money.
This is where independent stores have an edge over big-box retailers. Your expertise is the product — you just have to put it on display. You could try:
If you position yourself as a curator, you can earn the loyalty of customers who spend more carefully. And guess what? Loyal customers have bigger baskets.
Related Read: Segmenting Liquor Customers With POS Data: VIPs, Bargain Hunters, & Explorers
It’s so difficult to raise or lower prices. Many independent liquor stores are slower to adjust pricing than corporate competitors, and for good reason. You don’t have the volume they do.
And yet, 66% of store owners in our survey cited rising costs as their top challenge. The math is straightforward: If your costs go up and your prices don't, your margins shrink. With basket sizes already declining, you can't afford erosion from both sides.
Here's a starting framework:
Keep in mind: A price increase only works if you give customers a reason to pay more. You need better curation, a better shopping experience, knowledgeable staff, and products they can’t find elsewhere. Raise your prices, and justify them.
Want to know what your local competitors’ prices are? Try our Suggested Pricing tool. Scan any liquor product and instantly see local competitor pricing, your margin, and key metrics to price smarter.
Every tactic above relies on knowing what's actually happening in your store. You can't focus on quality over quantity without knowing which bottles move and which don't. You can't adjust pricing without margin data. You can't curate without understanding your customers.
With Bottle POS, you get:
OK, we're a little biased. But the stores weathering this shift have one thing in common: They're making decisions with data, not gut feel.
Want to see how Bottle POS helps you track what's selling and make smarter inventory decisions? Schedule a demo today.
Bottle POS was designed to be smart and simple. Instead of having hundreds of features that liquor store owners won't use, we concentrate on the features that really make a difference.
